February 2012 MLB Events
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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES at SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
2010-10-20
NLCS Game 4, San Francisco leads series 2-1
Wednesday, 7:55 p.m. EDT
Sportsbook.com Betting Odds: San Francisco -108, Philadelphia -102, Total: 7.5
San Francisco looks to take a commanding three-games-to-one lead when it sends Madison Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00) to the mound in Game 4. Philadelphia counters with Joe Blanton (9-6, 4.82 ERA).
Bumgarner picked up the win in the series-clinching Game 4 of the NLDS against Atlanta, throwing six innings and allowing two runs on six hits while striking out five. The southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA over his past three starts. Bumgarner struggled a bit at home this year, going 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA. By contrast, his ERA on the road during the regular season was 1.91. Wednesday marks his first career start against Philadelphia.
Blanton makes his first playoff start of the year in Game 4. The right-hander hasn’t pitched since September 29 where he went seven innings, surrendering only an unearned run and three hits in a 7-1 win over the Nationals. The Phillies have won Blanton’s past seven starts and 10 of his past 11 outings. He struggled a bit on the road this year, going 4-4 with a 5.31 ERA. Blanton hasn’t fared very well against the Giants in his career either, taking a 2-3 mark and a 4.73 ERA into Wednesday’s matchup. However, his lone 2010 start against San Francisco was encouraging. Blanton picked up the win after scattering eight hits and two runs over 6.1 innings.
According to this key baseball betting trend, those betting on the Giants appear to be on the right side:
Play On - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. (125-78 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.6%, +49.3 units. Rating = 3*).
Now that you have the key numbers for tonight’s MLB Playoff games, head over to Sportsbook.com to place your bets.
MLB: Braves favored over fading Phillies
2010-06-01
A masterful pitching performance over the weekend briefly masked the Philadelphia Phillies’ troubles, but right now the reigning NL champs are far from perfect. The Phillies have scored 10 runs in their last nine games while ceding first place to the Braves. Tim Hudson will look to add to Philadelphia’s misery while extending Atlanta’s winning streak to seven Tuesday night at Turner Field. The hosts are -131 favorites according to Sportsbook.com.
Roy Halladay’s perfect game Saturday night at Florida stole the major league spotlight, but the Phillies’ prolonged offensive drought is becoming a big story in its own right.
Philadelphia (28-22, -3.2 units) hit .187, totaled 10 runs and delivered just one homer in going 2-7 to end May, and it’s surprising ineptitude caught up with it in the standings Monday. Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus homered as the Braves (29-22, +3.4) cruised to a 9-3 win and took over first place in the NL East.
The Phillies hadn’t been out of first place since May 1. “Frustrated? Yes, we’re frustrated,” said left fielder Raul Ibanez, whose team is 5-14 after five straight games where they had less than 10 hits. “But we’re not down. This is a team of guys that are going to fight and scratch and claw.”
Jones, a .340 career hitter versus Philadelphia who has more homers against the Phillies (44) than anyone, doesn’t believe the slump will last much longer. “At some point they’re going to break out of it,” Jones said. “You just hope it’s not against you. We’ve been fortunate.”
The Braves’ six-game winning streak is their longest since a pair of seven-game runs in September and has been victorious in 16 of last 20 overall. Hudson (5-1, 2.24 ERA, 1.135 WHIP) seems like an ideal candidate to continue holding Philadelphia’s powerful lineup at bay.
Yet Hudson’s experience in recent years against the Phillies suggest it may be his own offense who has a rocky day at the plate. The right-hander is 0-5 with a 4.01 ERA in his last nine starts versus Philadelphia, as Atlanta has backed him with an average of only 1.70 runs of support.
Hudson gave up two runs over six innings when the Phillies visited April 21, but got no help in a 2-0 loss. The former Oakland A’s hurler is 1-6 at Turner Field of late against teams with a winning record. (Braves record) That’s the only time the former 20-game winner has suffered a defeat in 2010. Hudson finished May 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA, though a rain delay cost him a win Thursday at Florida, as he didn’t return despite holding a 3-2 lead after four innings.
The best bet to help the Phillies emerge from their slump might be Ryan Howard, even though he’s 4 for 31 (.129) over his past nine games. The 2006 NL MVP is a .361 (13 for 36) hitter with five homers and eight walks against Hudson. Nevertheless the Phils are 14-23 with an on-base percentage of .285 or worse in their last five outings.
The 2008 World Series MVP, meanwhile, had a rather impressive past month. Cole Hamels (5-3, 3.82, 1.414) was 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in May, though he fell victim to Philadelphia’s offensive struggles Thursday. Hamels held the New York Mets to two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings in a 3-0 loss.
The left-hander gave up three runs over five innings in a 5-3 home win over Atlanta on May 9, but beating the Braves is nothing new to Hamels. Since losing his first two outings versus Atlanta, he’s 8-2 with a 3.70 ERA in 13 starts. Hamels has not been the streak-stopper his team needs and is 9-14 after a loss over the last two seasons. (Phillies Record) He hasn’t had an easy time with the entire Braves’ roster, however. Jones is 9 for 22 (.409) against Hamels, while Brian McCann is 11 for 32 (.344). Twelve of their 20 hits have been for extra bases.
Sportsbook.com has Atlanta as -131 money line favorites to stay hot with total of 7.5. The Bravos are 17-4 as home favorites in 2010 and 16-4 UNDER after batting .290 or better over a 20-game span since 2008. Despite offensive woes, Philadelphia is 22-9 in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game since last season and is 24-10 UNDER in visiting gray uniforms after two or more consecutive losses.
ESPN will have Game 2 of this NL East conflict with the teams having split four in Atlanta this season, but Philadelphia 15-7 the last three years in Georgia. The StatFox Power Line shows Atlanta -135, thus a very sharp price is set up for this contest. Where’s the value?
MLB: Red Sox and Angels ALDS Betting Preview
2009-10-07
The Red Sox and Angles will be the last teams to start up their divisional series, giving bettors at least an extra day to prepare for all the exiciting wagering opportunities available. Right now, you can bet on each game, side and total, the series, including exact game props, plus numerous other player and team options at Sportsbook.com. Read on for a preview of the Boston-Los Angeles series, then head over to the LIVE ODDS page to analyze the options.
As if the postseason isn’t enough motivation, the Los Angeles Angels have a score to settle. The Angels had the second best record in the American League and that accomplishment means nothings to oddsmakers. The Halos are underdogs to Boston, since in the last five years; they have one win in 10 meetings with the Red Sox in the postseason. This can’t even be described as a rivalry since the outcomes have been so one-sided.
How will this year be any different than the last three times? Los Angeles feels better equipped offensively this time around. Only the Yankees scored more runs than the Angels in baseball this season. The 5.5 runs per game and boost in power (183 home runs) gives them the belief they are less likely to be stymied like in the past, since they have averaged 2.9 runs per game in last 10 postseason conflicts.
The Angels also believe their starting pitching is every bit as good as Boston’s, maybe better. John Lackey and Jered Weaver have experience and generally pitch well at home. When they travel to Boston, Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders will try and make life tough on Red Sox hitters, as both are throwing extremely well of late.
In theory that all sound terrific, one problem, the Angels bullpen. Though Los Angeles has a higher save percentage than Boston (73 to 69 percent), nobody is going to take the Halos pen over the BoSox. Closer Brian Fuentes just recently went under four (3.93) for his ERA for the first time this season. The Angels are 11th in bullpen ERA compared to Boston’s second place finish in the American League. According to ESPN senior editor Dave Schoenfield, only three teams since 1969 have won the World Series with a closer who had ERA greater than three.
Boston has John Papelbon (1.85 ERA) as its closer and teams that have inferior closer, but better overall record are 26-28 in the division series. The lower scoring team is 32-22 in this round and the club with the better bullpen ERA wins 58.9 percent of the time (33-23) in divisional series.
Total the numbers and you can see why the Angels are underdogs in the ALDS. For Los Angeles to win they have to score runs and HOPE the bullpen can shutdown Boston bats. If the Red Sox starters once again limit L.A. in the run column, it will be like watching the TV Land; you’ve seen this show before.
Offensive – American League
Runs scored Boston 3rd Angels 2nd
Home Runs Boston 3rd Angels 8th
Slugging Pct. Boston 2nd Angels 4th
Walks Boston 2nd Angels 7th
On base Pct. Boston 2nd Angels 3rd
Pitching & Defense
ERA Boston 7th Angels 9th
Bullpen ERA Boston 2nd Angels 11th
Strikeouts Boston 2nd Angels 9th
Walks Boston 6th Angels 5th
On base Pct. Boston 8th Angels 10th
Putouts Boston 8th Angels 5th
Errors Boston 3rd Angels 4th
Key Numbers- Los Angeles won the season series 5-4, including 4-2 at the Big A. The tone of the series is likely to be set in the series opener. John Lackey is living off history as big game pitcher, having last won in his rookie season of 2002, pitching in the postseason. Lester allowed one run in 14 innings last October against the Halos and the lefty and teammates are 35-12 in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Though several factors are in the Red Sox favor, they are desultory 3-15 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
Sportsbook.com Series Odds: Red Sox -135, Angels +115
MLB Series Betting- St. Louis at Philadelphia
2009-07-24
The last time the Philadelphia Phillies were playing this well, they were on their way to a World Series title. The Phillies are working on a third consecutive NL East division title, having won 15 of last 17 games. Philadelphia (54-39, +8.5 units) is the most offensive team in the National League scoring 5.4 runs per game. The have great diversity, being able to get runners on base and stealing bases to keep the opposing pitcher and defense on edge. If they trail in a contest, the batting order is loaded with big boppers who can help them come from behind. (Baseball bettors always review the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and TEAM STATISTICS pages every single day.)
St. Louis (52-46, -1.2 units) was able to help itself out of mini-slump like many have before them by beating Washington in a rain-shorten makeup game Thursday. The Cardinals are just 4-6 in last 10 games and have seen NL Central lead diminish to 1.5 games. They arrive in the City of Brotherly Love 5-12 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season.
J.A. Happ (7-0 2.68 ERA) will be the opening game starter for the Phillies, which could be his last based on circulating reports. Happ is the main piece Toronto would want in return for Roy Halladay trade and why not. Happ is 26-year old lefthander, has posted 5-0 record since going into the rotation in late May and over his last five outings, he is 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA, with 24 strikeouts and five walks in 37 innings. Philadelphia is -135 money line favorite at Sportsbook.com, with total of U9. The Phils come into Friday’s tilt 42-20 having won four of their last five games.
St. Louis will attempt to build on Thursday’s victory and might start their newest member, Julio Lugo at shortstop. Lugo was acquired from Boston for outfielder Chris Duncan and is thought as offensive sparkplug to ignite Cards offense which is eighth in the NL in runs scored. Joel Pineiro (8-9, 3.09) has mediocre record, yet has pitched well as ERA indicates. Though not a strikeout pitcher, Pineiro has kept the ball down and has not been taken out of the yard like in the past. Nevertheless, he and Cardinals are 7-17 after a win.
Game 1 Edge: Philadelphia
Game 2 will be Fox late afternoon affair. Philadelphia started this series 38-20 playing against a team with a winning record in the second half the last two years and will entrust Rodrigo Lopez (2-0, 2.60) with another start. Lopez’s spot in the rotation is also in jeopardy with Pedro Martinez not far away from coming off the DL. The 33-year old Lopez has at least shown he should be part of the Phillies pitching staff and could spot start or be used in long relief for a team that has won 12 of last 14 home games.
Manager Tony LaRussa will turn to Kyle Lohse (4-6, 4.21) to cool down Philly. Lohse was roughed up on July 12th after coming off the DL by the Cubs, however turned in a more typical performance, pitching seven innings and allowing three runs against Houston his last time out. The situation definitely favors Charley Manuel’s squad since Lohse and the Cards are 1-10 when he starts on the road.
Game 2 Edge: St. Louis
The series finale has the Cardinals turning to Todd Wellemeyer (7-8, 5.68), which has not been a suitable option for awhile for a team in a pennant race. Wellemeyer has ERA over 6.5 in his last eight starts. He’s been hit hard, with right-hand batters hitting .301 and lefties crushing him with .340 average. Joe Blanton (6-4, 4.24) of Philadelphia has been just the opposite. After a slow beginning to the season, Blanton is 4-1 with 2.43 ERA since May 21, which covers 10 starts. Blanton has no magical reason why he’s pitched so well. “It's a little more quality pitches, maybe," Blanton said. "Maybe my changeup has come around lately. My sinker is down instead of flat and over the plate, and that always helps. Other than that, I'm just trying to pitch." This Sunday contest is afternoon game and the Phillies came in 18-10 in day ball, compared to the Redbirds 20-17 mark.
Game 3 Edge: Philadelphia
Since I’ve done so poorly picking these series, brought in a guest expert and they’ve been 2-0 this season. Red Wydley has this to say about who wins this series of division leaders. “Philadelphia wins handily, with a sweep possible. The Phillies are scoring 6.4 runs in last 17 games; the Cards have tallied more than five runs twice in last 10. Philadelphia is playing before packed houses every night and has caught fire at home winning 12 of 14. Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan should go into Hall of Fame the way he figures out how to maximize pitchers, but I’ll still take the Phillies relievers late in games. The ONLY way St. Louis wins this series is if Albert (Pujols) the Great hits .500 with four dingers. Philly, no problem.”
Sportsbook.com series odds: St. Louis +140, Philadelphia -180
StatFox Edge Pick: Philadelphia
MLB: Inhospitable home teams in baseball
2009-05-29
It’s happened to all of us, we are invited over someone’s home as a guest and the place is set up as a palace. The entire house looks like out of magazine, where everything is perfect. If you have or did have children visiting this palatial estate, your body temperature just rose about three degrees, thinking about how you are going to keep your kids in tow, without messing up beautiful setting. You know you are in conundrum when the host gives you coasters, before they ask you what you want to drink.
This happens to be how many major league baseball teams feel when they have to play at certain ballparks. Though they can spit and spill drinks, more often than not, they are ill-equipped to do their job as visitors, win in opposing parks.
Sometimes, teams are just superior and the park has nothing to do with it. Other times there are quirks, which intimidate opponents and make them feel unsettled. Whatever the rationale, it works for these teams that take the field first and have the last at bat. Here is what clubs have enjoyed the home cookin’ and been downright rude to guests.
At the top of the list are the Los Angeles Dodgers at 18-5, garnering +10.8 units of profit, after record start of 13-0. Dodger Stadium has always been known as pitchers’ park, with the heavy air for most evening encounters. Most of the time when the Dodgers are at their best, they are able to put together a potent offensive team. Los Angeles is tied with Tampa Bay with the most productive offense in the majors at 5.7 runs per game and they are second in the National League behind Colorado at home. The Dodgers have been lambasting teams wearing the home whites, winning by 2.5 runs per contest, thanks to balanced line-up that is not feeling the affects of Manny Ramirez’s suspension. Orlando Hudson and Casey Blake have been stripen’ the horsehide and Juan Pierre has made the most of his chance to play for Manny, batting almost .400 this season.
If there is one shocking team to be among the best in baseball at home, it is the San Diego Padres. The Friars were supposed to be among the worst teams in baseball, lacking talent at most positions and having to rebuild bullpen as cash-strapped club. For some reason, the people that designed ballparks in San Diego, like them to have outfield expanse similar to the Grand Canyon. This alone keeps scores down and add in the heavy marine air at Petco Park, which is situated not far from Pacific Ocean, well you get the picture. Though the offense has been as sorry as presumed in scoring 3.7 RPG at home, the pitching has looked like the 1969 Mets. The Padres are 17-6 (+10.3) at Petco, presently holding a 10-game winning streak. No team in baseball allows fewer runs at home than San Diego at 3.2 per contest and while Jake Peavy and Chris Young are the known quantities, it is a bullpen that has ERA of 2.20 (over six on the road) at home that has allowed the Pads to manufacture just enough runs to win home games.
Another team that plays to its park is Boston, who is 17-6 (+7.9) at Fenway Park this season. The Red Sox fans are right on top of the action at the venerable ball yard and create intimidation factor when the opposing batter has two strikes or pitcher is in challenging spot, if Boston has rally emerging. Talent of course is the number one factor and this team has evolved from one that used to just swing to beat the ball off Green Monster, to one that takes advantage of the deeper parts of center and right-center or left-handed hitters that jack the ball down the short right field porch. Playing the Red Sox on the run line is effective method of wagering, since they win by two runs per game and are 13-4 at home in games determined by two or more runs.
One of the early surprises in the first quarter of the MLB season has been the Toronto Blue Jays. A miserable road trip has dropped the Blue Jays out of the AL East lead, but when they return home to Rogers Centre, Toronto will try to pick up where they left off with 16-6 record (+8 units). The most notable factor about the Jays playing at home is the pitching and defense. The RC is fairly neutral ballpark, however no team in the American League surrenders fewer runs than the Jays at home (3.9). Having Roy “Doc” Halladay at the top of the rotation is a benefit to pitching staff that was riddled with injuries to start the season. With so many youngsters forced into action, like most youthful hurlers, they are more comfortable at home. The team ERA is over 1.50 lower at home and the offense picks up, scoring 5.2 RPG and ranking fifth in home park home runs among the 30 competing teams.
How will these four teams be playing by the All-Star break, nobody knows for sure, nonetheless, for the present, each club deserves our attention as possible Play On squad when playing on own diamond.
Favored Minnesota needs to go to work
2008-09-23
The margin of error for the Minnesota Twins is razor thin, one slip up and the chances of returning to the post-season are up in smoke. Minnesota plays host to the Chicago White Sox, who lead the AL Central by three games in the loss column, meaning anything less than sweep would be fatal, sense the chances of the Pale Hose losing three in a row at home to Kansas City would be remote. Whether the Twins play them one at a time or focus on winning all three contests, the results need to be the same; they must defeat Chicago in the next trio of games.
Minnesota placed themselves in this predicament with road failures. In the later stages of August, the Twins had their longest road trip in 39 years (14 games) and after winning the first two against the Angels, then went on to lose nine of the last 12. Upon returning home, they split six games at the Metrodome versus Detroit and Kansas City and won only four games in following 10-game road trip. Since August 23, manager Ron Gardenhire’s club is 10-19, costing backers -11.7 units.
What gives the Twins a glimmer of hope is the White Sox did not runaway and hide. Manager Ozzie Guillen’s club is 10-13 in last 23 ballgames, including 5-9 on the road. “It’s pretty simple at this point,” Chicago first baseman Paul Konerko said. “You don’t need to speculate about a lot. It is head-to-head. If we have a bad series, I don’t think it is the end of anything. But if we have a good one, that should do it I would think. So that’s our goal.”
Chicago is 35-43 on the road and will face Sam Baker (9-4, 3.69 ERA). The White Sox are 21-32 in road games against right-handed starters this season. The South Siders are 3-4 on current road trip after taking series in Kansas City and are 15-6 after six or more consecutive road games this season. Baker is the oldest member of the Twins starting rotation at 27. He’s the one guy that should be ready for this, out of all of them,” Gardenhire told his team’s official Web site. “He’s been around the most, pitched in some ballgames and hasn’t backed away.” Baker is 2-2 lifetime against the White Sox with extra large 7.99 ERA against them.
Javier Vazquez (12-14, 4.32) has been more up and down than a Duncan yo-yo and will need a big start to take the pressure off his club. Vazquez is 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA in seven starts against the Twins since the beginning of 2007, though only 1-4 with a 5.68 lifetime ERA at the Metrodome. He has really struggled against good teams, as he and the Pale Hose are 0-7 playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season, losing by 3.8 runs per game.
Sportsbook.com has Minnesota as a -133 money line home favorite with the total Ov8.5. The Twinkies are 49-26 at home and 26-12 at the Metrodome vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start over the last three seasons. Chicago is 38-20 UNDER as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season Minnesota is 76-47 UNDER as a favorite of -125 to -175 over a much longer span of time.
The first pitch is scheduled to be at about 8:10 Eastern and can be seen in local markets and on MLB.TV. The Twins have won five of six versus Chicago at home and are 14-3 after a day off this year.
StatFox Power Line – Minnesota -116