MLB: Top Weekend Baseball Trends

Baseball offers up several intriguing series’ over the Memorial Day weekend


2008-05-23

Baseball offers up several intriguing series’ over the Memorial Day weekend, and two of them in the American League are worth noting simply because the teams involved have struggled so badly this season.

In betting, you don’t always have to back the best teams to build your bankroll. Often it’s just as effective to fade the league’s worst teams. With that in mind, take a look at what the junior circuit has on tap for this weekend. In New York, the East’s last place Yankees, I repeat, last place, take on the Seattle Mariners, the team occupying the same dreadful position in the A.L. West division. Combined, these teams have lost over 25 betting units already. Perhaps a series against another struggling club will be just what the doctor ordered.

In Motown, the Tigers, owners of the second worst betting return in the A.L. at minus-15 units, host the Twins. These teams were expected to be among the frontrunners in the Central Division at the start of the season, but instead find themselves in a logjam for the rear of that field.

Of course, if you’re in the mood for taking in some better holiday weekend baseball, then the action in Chicago and Los Angeles is probably more to your liking. In the Windy City, the White Sox host the Angels, with both teams having gone into the week leading their respective divisions. The Halos have been one of the top road teams in baseball in the early going. In Los Angeles, the Dodgers play host to the Cardinals in a series of clubs who figure to be in the thick of the wildcard race all season long.

It’s a big holiday weekend of baseball that lies ahead. Here’s a look at some of the top trends from each series.

CHICAGO CUBS at PITTSBURGH
CHICAGO CUBS are 11-1 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 3.2, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)

SAN FRANCISCO at FLORIDA
FLORIDA is 17-6 (+13.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
The average score was FLORIDA 5.6, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 3*)

ARIZONA at ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 15-2 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 5.8, OPPONENT 2.6 - (Rating = 3*)

MILWAUKEE at WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 17-9 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in home games against NL Central opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 4.7, OPPONENT 3.9 - (Rating = 1*)

PHILADELPHIA at HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 3.8, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 2*)

NY METS at COLORADO
COLORADO is 10-20 (-10.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
The average score was COLORADO 4.8, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)

CINCINNATI at SAN DIEGO
CINCINNATI is 13-36 (-25.7 Units) against the money line vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.2, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 3*)

ST LOUIS at LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 43-28 OVER (+14.1 Units) in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 4.5, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 1*)

MINNESOTA at DETROIT
DETROIT is 4-15 (-15.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
The average score was DETROIT 3.4, OPPONENT 6.4 - (Rating = 4*)

TEXAS at CLEVELAND
TEXAS is 10-1 OVER (+9.4 Units) against AL Central opponents this season.
The average score was TEXAS 5.8, OPPONENT 7.7 - (Rating = 3*)

SEATTLE at NY YANKEES
SEATTLE is 9-19 (-12.4 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 3.8, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)

KANSAS CITY at TORONTO
TORONTO is 58-30 UNDER (+22.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 4.1, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 2*)

BALTIMORE at TAMPA BAY
BALTIMORE is 41-82 (-27.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.6, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 1*)

LA ANGELS at CHI WHITE SOX
GUILLEN is 40-17 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in May home games as the manager of CHI WHITE SOX.
The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 5.1, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 0*)

BOSTON at OAKLAND
BOSTON is 3-12 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was BOSTON 4.3, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 2*)

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