MLB: Strong Interleague System backs Boston Monday

Leaders of their respective East Divisions in the American and National League


2008-06-16

Leaders of their respective East Divisions in the American and National League, the Red Sox and Phillies will start an intriguing 3-game series on Monday night in Philadelphia. Though the hosts are a -155 favorite behind ace left-hander Cole Hamels, a fantastic StatFox Super Situation backs Boston.

The particular system of note is one that only comes into play in Interleague action, and the numbers shouldn’t surprise most savvy bettors who’ve come to understand the A.L. dominance against its counterpart. The system reads as follows:

Play Against - Any team (PHILADELPHIA) - good NL offensive team (>=5.0 runs/game) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20), on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors.
(58-16 since 1997.) (78.4%, +44.2 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +103.8
The average score in these games was: Team 6.2, Opponent 3.8 (Average run differential = +2.4)

The situation's record this season is: (2-2, -0.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-6, +19.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (31-6, +24.7 units).

This is a spot where one of the league’s premiere teams, the Red Sox, are getting a ton of underdog value. It’s not surprising that nearly 70% of the early action at Sportsbook.com is on the visitors.

Here’s a little more background info on the game and the series.

The Boston Red Sox appear to have finally found the solution to their road struggles, and will bring a 10-2 mark against left-handed starters into their game Monday, as
Phillies ace Cole Hamels will take the mound against Boston for the first time ever, when the two first-place clubs begin a three-game set in Philadelphia.

After a stretch where they had won just one out of 10 games on the road, the Red Sox (44-28) have now won five of seven games - and two straight series - away from Fenway Park.

They’ve also played well in recently at Philadelphia (41-30), going 6-1 in their last seven games there while averaging more than eight runs.

Boston, though, has never faced Hamels (6-4, 3.27 ERA). The Phillies’ hard-throwing left-hander has been especially good recently, with two shutouts in his last six starts and only six hits allowed in 17 innings over his last two outings.

Hamels gave up two runs and three hits - two of them homers - in eight innings Wednesday at Florida. He struck out a season-high 13, but didn’t factor in the decision as the Phillies lost 6-2.

“I made a lot of the right pitches,” Hamels said. “But if you make mistakes, they are going to hurt you.”

The only Red Sox hitter who has faced Hamels is shortstop Julio Lugo, who is 2-for-3 with two home runs against him.

Despite a lineup that lacked Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz for the last two games of a three-game set in Cincinnati over the weekend, Boston scored a combined 15 runs in two victories, including a 9-0 win Sunday.

While the Red Sox are second in the AL with 371 runs, Boston starter Bartolo Colon (4-1, 3.41) will have to face a Phillies lineup that ranks second in the NL with 381.

Colon has pitched well in his first five starts with the Red Sox, but those outings have come against Baltimore, Seattle and Kansas City - all of which rank among the bottom 10 in the majors in runs.

The right-hander pitched six innings against the Orioles Wednesday, giving up five hits and one run while striking out seven.

Philadelphia scored 28 runs in three games at St. Louis over the weekend, but dropped the last two contests after a 20-2 win on Friday. The Phillies’ 7-6 loss on Sunday came after they made a pair of errors in the bottom of the 10th, allowing the winning run to score.

The Phillies have won eight of their last 10 at home.

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