MLB: Just another Manic Betting Monday
After getting the first weekend after the All-Star break comfortably into the books, major league baseball returns to the weekday portion of the schedule
2008-07-21
After getting the first weekend after the All-Star break comfortably into the books, major league baseball returns to the weekday portion of the schedule, with three big series, all with teams battling for playoff contention. While most managers and players have been conditioned to elicit responses as “It’s only July, can’t get too excited yet” or “It’s important, but the playoff push really starts in August”, these games are precious because they are against teams fighting for the same thing, the playoffs. Evidently TV pitchman Tony May has yet to see the switch playoff contenders turn on August 1, otherwise he would be hawking that as well. Here is a look how three “sort of important” series which will start around baseball this Monday. (Free Foxsheet on one of them)
Milwaukee and St. Louis spent the weekend sweeping inefficacious opponents and moving ever closer to the first place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. With each at 43 losses on the season, one team will try to grab the upper hand on the other in opening this four-game series.
The Brewers had little trouble in taking down vaunted San Francisco young hurlers, scoring 24 runs in three-game sweep. Milwaukee has won five of last six road games to climb to 24-26 (-0.7 units) as visitors and are 3-1-1 in last five road series. This month the Brewers are 12-4 OVER, scoring 6.1 runs per game and have moved up to seventh in runs scored in the National League. Seth McClung (5-5, 4.16, 1.347 WHIP) gets the call for Milwaukee in the opener. He throws into the mid-to-high 90’s, but has inconsistent mechanics, which inhibits from being more dominant.
St. Louis will counter with Joel Pineiro (3-4, 4.52, 1.403 WHIP) who’s only consistent in the fact he is inconsistent. The Cardinals have won five in a row and six of seven and are 14-5 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits a start this season. Sportsbook.com has the Redbirds as -115 money line favorites with total listed at Ov9. St. Louis is 29-16 when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. Milwaukee has won five in a row against the Cards and has won 11 of 14 facing teams with winning records.
This is the ESPN Monday night encounter starting at 7:05 Eastern.
At the same time in New York, Minnesota will continue to try to hunt down the Chicago White, as the Yankees claw and scratch to stay with Tampa Bay and Boston in the AL East. New York has won seven straight at Yankee Stadium and goes for number eight against the Twins Nick Blackburn (7-5, 3.65, 1.268). Blackburn has been sharp in recent outings with 1.74 ERA, one out short of pitching 21 innings. Both teams have feature outstanding starting pitching since the break and the Twins are 9-1 against the money line after allowing three runs or less three straight games this season.
The Yankees will counter with Sidney Ponson (5-1, 3.96, 1.583) as their starter. Two aspects of the contest are in New York’s favor, Ponson is 10-2, with a 2.42 ERA lifetime against Minnesota and the Yankees are hotter than a July humid day, when the bullpen has WHIP under 1.000 the last five games, leading to 15-2 record. New York is a -134 home favorite with total at Un9.5.
Out west, Arizona’s bullpen cost then two wins against the Dodgers (almost 3) and with confidence shaken, the Chicago Cubs come to town. The D-Backs will turn to Randy Johnson (6-7, 5.23, 1.408) to stem the tide and have his team start winning again. If history counts for anything, Johnson is 12-0 in 13 careers starts against the Cubs (last in 2004), doing his part to contribute to the 99 years of the Cubs not having World Series championship banner. If the elderly left-hander can deliver quality effort, maybe the Snakes can improve upon 21-9 mark with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last five games.
The Cubs awoke from slumber, which had seen them score four runs in three consecutive losses, before busting out with 9-0 win yesterday. For all the excitement Chicago as stirred, they are only 21-28 on the road and 8-15 after allowing one run or less in a win over a division rival. A pair of angles go in opposite directions, thus how one interprets them is key. The Cubs hitters are 17-10 versus LH starters this season, however are 14-24 against the money line in road games against lefties over the last two seasons.
Maybe newly acquired Rich Harden (5-1, 2.19, 1.116) makes this mute point, since he is 22-7against the money line in all games over the last two years. (Team's Record) Oddsmakers have the visiting Cubs as -134 road favorites and they are 22-8 against the money line against NL West opponents this season.
StatFox Power Lines –Cardinals-107, Twins -138, Cubs -191
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