MLB: First Place Rays hit the road as Favorites

The Tampa Bay Rays are embarking on a vast number of road games over the next several weeks


2008-07-24

The Tampa Bay Rays are embarking on a vast number of road games over the next several weeks, which might explain what their real chances will be of winning the AL East and making the postseason for the first time in team history. Tampa Bay, to this point of the year is spectacular 40-16 at home, gathering +19.3 units of profit. No team in baseball has played more home games than the Rays 56, which means the schedule has to balance up in home and road contests. Starting tonight, Tampa Bay will play 17 of next 23 away from Tropicana Field.

Compared to many teams in baseball, manager Joe Maddon’s club is not that bad on the road at 19-25 (-5.7 units), placing them 16th overall. What makes heading out on the road different this time, is the aura of having lost last six games on the road. Maddon, as any good baseball man can point to, losing two in a row at Yankee Stadium is no big deal, since no opponent can presently win at the House Ruth built and New York City will tear down. Losing four in a row at Cleveland sounds worse than what actually occurred, since the Devil Rays or the Rays never win there anyways.

Tampa Bay has to be encouraged at first stop, Kansas City, who lost three in a row at home to Detroit and the pitching staff was massacred in allowing 33 runs in three games, while the Royals touched home plate just six times in the series. In the last three years, Tampa Bay is 11-6 versus K.C. and has split six contests at Kauffman Stadium.

Rays starter Matt Garza (8-5, 3.68, 1.200 WHIP) will take on a Royals club that is 2-11 against the money line in home games after a loss by four runs or more this season. Garza’s last road outing was a rough one, giving up a season-high seven earned runs to Cleveland in his July 12 start. He bounced back with 7 2/3 shutout innings against Toronto at home, nevertheless is 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA away from home. Granted, this is a different Tampa Bay team from the past, yet they are still 2-19 in July road games over the last two seasons and Garza is 0-3 with a 3.42 ERA in four career starts against the Royals.

Kansas City had won five of seven and two series in a row, until they were mauled by the Tigers. Time for the Royals to regroup and they’ll send Gil Meche (7-9, 4.48, 1.342) to the mound, hoping he can provide pitching relief. Meche is 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA in nine career starts against the Rays. To his credit, the right-hander has been much more effective of late, as K.C. has won six of his last seven starts (+6.15 units) and he is 4-1 with a 3.25 ERA in that stretch.

Tampa Bay is getting the nod from those wagering that they are better team and have moved from -110 to -120 road favorites at Sportsbook.com. The Royals are 3-13 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring two runs or less this season and 35-75 in home games with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last five outings. Tampa Bay is 42-26 against right-handed starters in 2008 and 40-21 when favored at -110 or higher.

This contest will commence at 8:10 Eastern and if Tampa Bay can win this series, it would the first time they have ever won 21 series in a season.

StatFox Power Line – Tampa Bay -114

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