MLB: Caution – Seattle poison as favorite in ‘08

In addition to being ranked dead last in money line units lost in ’08 at -25.2


2008-06-18

In addition to being ranked dead last in money line units lost in ’08 at -25.2, Seattle owns Major League Baseball’s worst record when playing in the chalk role, having won just 11 of 31 games. Ironically, one of those wins came last night. The Mariners will look to make it two in a row Wednesday when they close out a 3-game series against the Marlins.

The list of StatFox Power Trends indicating to fade the Mariners is long and distinguished, and includes:

• SEATTLE is 11-20 (-16.3 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The average score was SEATTLE 3.8, OPPONENT 4.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• SEATTLE is 7-17 (-14.2 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. The average score was SEATTLE 3.4, OPPONENT 5.8 - (Rating = 2*)
• SEATTLE is 1-8 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in home games in June games this season. The average score was SEATTLE 3.4, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 2*)

Seattle, who has been outscored by a full run per game on the season, will put its trust in R.A. Dickey this evening. He has been tough to hit out of the bullpen this season, but he’s struggled to carry that success into the rotation. In his two previous starts, he “boasts” an ERA of 14.08, having allowed 16 hits in 7-2/3 innings. The veteran knuckleballer will look to turn in a solid start as the Mariners wrap up the interleague series with the Florida Marlins at Safeco Field.

Dickey is 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two career relief appearances against the Marlins (38-33).

The Mariners (25-46) ended an eight-game home losing streak on Tuesday, beating the Marlins 5-4. Left fielder Raul Ibanez had three hits including an RBI single in the first, and Jose Lopez added a pair of RBI doubles for Seattle, which owns the worst record in baseball.

Seattle gave starter Felix Hernandez a 4-1 lead heading into the fifth - the team’s first lead of more than two runs since June 6. The Mariners’ anemic offense, which is tied with Kansas City for last in the AL with 275 runs, also scored more than three runs for just the second time in 10 games.

Second baseman Dan Uggla hit his 20th homer for the Marlins, who had scored 15 runs and picked up 21 hits while winning their previous two games. Florida lost for the fourth time in six games overall, and remained three games behind NL East-leading Philadelphia.

The Marlins will turn to Ryan Tucker (1-1, 5.40), who is making his third major league start, to lead them to the series win. The 21-year-old right-hander beat Cincinnati 9-2 in his major league debut on June 8, but yielded five runs in five innings of Friday’s 7-3 loss in Tampa Bay.

Oddsmakers initially set Florida as the favorite at -110, but the line has since flipped with the host Mariners becoming the favored club. This strange move comes despite 59% of the early money coming in on the visitors at Sportsbook.com.

Both teams are 3-5 in interleague action, and the Marlins own a 16-18 record away from home. With neither side a scintillating option, perhaps a play on the total might be in order. Today’s top trend backs the OVER:

• FLORIDA is 21-5 OVER (+16.1 Units) vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season. The average score was FLORIDA 5.6, OPPONENT 5.0 - (Rating = 4*)

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