MLB: Anemic Cleveland Offense has Bettors on Under

Cleveland’s offense has produced more runs than only five other teams so far in major League Baseball.


2008-05-22

Cleveland’s offense has produced more runs than only five other teams so far in major League Baseball. The Indians haven’t topped the four run mark since May 10th. Not surprisingly, 82% of early bettors favor the UNDER in tonight’s Indians-White Sox clash from Chicago.

Last season the Cleveland Indians won the Central Division, led Boston three games to one in the American League championship series, thanks in large part to an exceptional offense. In the last three games of that fateful series, the Indians scored a grand total of five runs and were dismissed by the Red Sox, who went on to win the World Series for the second time in four years. Evidently, the lack of run production last fall has carried over into 2008.

Cleveland averaged five runs per game last season, this year, not so much, down a full run to four a game, ranking 25th in baseball. When the production plummets this much, it’s more than one player not carry his weight in the lineup. Catcher Victor Martinez is still pounding out base hits with a .304 batting average, however after him, the fall is precipitous.

The next highest batting average among the regular starters is FIFTY points lower, with Grady Sizemore at .254. Things only get worse from there. Ryan Garko .248, Frank Gutierrez .230, Dave Dellucci .230, Casey Blake .229, Jhonny Peralta .219 and DH Travis Hafner .222. You get the picture, with Cleveland owning the worst team batting average in the American League at .234. The most telling difference between this year’s Tribe and this year’s Boston club, the Indians have 230 LESS total bases than the Red Sox and Memorial Day weekend has yet to arrive.

Cleveland is on a five game losing streak and has not score five runs in a game in 10 tries, including the last two against division rival Chicago. With the lack of offensive punch, a fairly rare Totals system rockets to the top of the list for today’s action.

PLAY UNDER all teams against the total, when they are a bad offensive team like Cleveland (4.5 runs a game or less), against an average starting pitcher like Mark Buehrle (ERA=4.70 to 5.70) in the AL, after scoring four runs or less six straight games.

This will be just the 14th time this system has arisen in the last five years and it has been on the nose 12 times, for a 92.3 winning percent. In the last three seasons it is perfect 5-0. Sportsbook.com has this total posted at Un8.5 and chances are it will continue to drop. Aaron Laffey (2-2, 1.35) of the Indians will oppose Buehrle (2-5, 5.27), with Cleveland a -110 road favorite.

The system is further substantiated by the Indians being 15-4 UNDER after batting .250 or worse over a 20-game span and 16-6 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The White Sox also have something to contribute with 14-5 UNDER record as an underdog of +100 to +150 this year.

The action of this AL Central contest can be followed in both local markets on radio and TV, starting at 8:11 Eastern and on MLB.TV.

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